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福尔摩斯:基本演绎法第一季

Ohio begins voting on amendment that would guarantee abortion rights_我的网站

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一 |     据中国气象局官微消息,4月19日8时至21日8时,贵州南部、江南南部、华南北部和中东部等地的部分地区出现暴雨到大暴雨、局地特大暴雨。中国气象局于4月18日8时30分启动暴雨三级应急响应。

二 |     Ohio residents this week began voting on a constitutional amendment whose fate will ultimately determine abortion access in the state.Voters are considering two ballot initiatives; ballots began being accepted on Wednesday and go through Election Day on Nov. 7.The two measures are: Issue 1, the amendment that if approved would add abortion rights to the state constitution; and Issue 2, which would legalize recreational marijuana.The proposed abortion amendment would establish an "individual right to one's own reproductive medical treatment including but not limited to abortion" and then creates legal protections for those individuals, among other guarantees like for contraception and fertility treatment.The marijuana measure, if passed, would make Ohio the 24th state to legalize cannabis and would allow adults 21 years and older to buy and possess up to 2.5 ounces of flower and 15 grams of extract.In August, Ohio voters resoundingly rejected a contentious, Republican-backed ballot measure that would have raised the threshold for future changes to the state constitution -- an effort that would have specifically made it more difficult for the abortion amendment to pass.When the U.S. Supreme Court struck down its previous Roe v. Wade ruling, in 2022, the justices returned the question of abortion access to individual states. Since then, while some states have largely ceased abortion access, others have taken up ballot measures that put the question before voters. In those cases -- in both red and blue states so far -- voters have rejected the potential for abortion restrictions and bans or elected to expand access.On Sept. 27, the Ohio Supreme Court started hearing arguments about the state's six-week abortion ban, which was previously put on hold by a lower court.The success or failure of the abortion ballot measure could render that case moot, if state voters add abortion access to their constitution.Both sides have built up mobilization efforts over the past few weeks -- knocking on doors, canvassing and hosting rallies across the state."Whether you're pro-life or pro-choice, Issue 1 just goes too far," Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, said at a recent event at the Ohio GOP's headquarters.Ohio Democrats claimed last week to have been inching toward 100,000 doors knocked and more than 100,000 calls made in the time since their win in the August special election."We're not leaving anything behind as we work to protect women's rights to choose and prevent Ohio's extreme abortion ban from taking effect," Ohio Democratic Chairwoman Elizabeth Walters said during a recent press briefing.There's also been significant financial investment in the race. According to numbers from AdImpact released last week, $12.3 million had been spent or reserved in advertising around the abortion ballot measure, with anti-amendment groups outspending amendment supporters by about $1.6 million.

The two sides make their arguments

Both Ohioans United for Reproductive Rights, a coalition of groups supporting abortion rights, and allied Ohio Democrats have sounded the alarm on what they claim to be foul play by opponents of the abortion amendment.Last month, the state Supreme Court allowed the Republican-controlled Ohio Ballot Board -- which is overseen by Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is also running for the U.S. Senate -- to use amendment language that includes the phrase "unborn child."Democrats on the board had asked for measure's language to remain what was on the petition that voters originally signed, which did not include that term.Amendment supporters have argued it was rewritten to confuse voters and is misleading about what the measure would actually do."They're running scared because they know their extreme abortion ban is wildly unpopular, and Ohio voters support a woman's right to make medical decisions for themselves without interference from politicians," Walters, with the state Democrats, said during a recent press call.Abortion opponents have also attempted to broaden the stakes of the proposal, arguing that it "goes far beyond" codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade to potentially affect parents' rights and "threaten the freedom of conscience of Ohio's healthcare professionals and preclude ... the enactment and enforcement of commonsense, protective laws," as Protect Women Ohio, one of the leading organizations fighting against the amendment, wrote in a memo."The Abortion Amendment victimizes rather than protects and empowers women and girls," they continued.LaRose, a leading voice against the measure, said in a statement to ABC News that "as a father and someone who's always stood up to protect life, I'll be working to defeat this radical measure."。4月21日10时,中央气象台继续发布暴雨橙色预警、强对流天气黄色预警。  多地累计降水量突破4月历史纪录,珠江流域北江发生2024年第2号洪水  19日8时至21日8时,广西北部、广东中北部、湖南东南部、江西南部累计降水量达100毫米至200毫米,其中广西东北部、广东西北部达250毫米至350毫米,局地超过400毫米。

三 | 最大小时降水量达40毫米至80毫米,广西南宁、广东茂名局地超过100毫米。20日8时30分至9时15分,广西壮族自治区梧州市藤县发生中等强度龙卷风(相当于最大瞬时风力达15级)。  受强降水影响,珠江流域北江发生2024年第2号洪水。21日早晨,北江下游控制站石角水文站流量为14900立方米/秒,已经超过2024年第1号洪水,并在广西、广东造成多条中小河流水位超警戒水位,多地发生地质灾害。

四 |   气象部门密切关注此次强降水过程,中国气象局与水利部联合发布山洪灾害气象风险提醒,并联合自然资源部提前启动2024年度全国地质灾害气象风险联合预警业务。

五 | 广西、广东省(自治区)气象局与当地水利厅、自然资源厅联合发布山洪灾害与地质灾害气象风险预警。  多重因素导致近期南方降雨偏多偏强,未来强降水过程多仍需加强防范  中央气象台首席预报员马学款介绍,4月以来,副热带高压比常年同期偏强,有利于南海和孟加拉湾水汽向南方地区输送,同时高原槽和南支系统活跃,导致南方地区强降水过程频繁、降水持续时间偏长。

六 | 另外,江南、华南等地气温比常年同期明显偏高,大气含水量丰富、不稳定能量高,导致对流发展旺盛、降雨强度高,多地累计降水量突破4月历史纪录。  中央气象台预计,4月21日至22日,江南南部和东部、华南中东部和南部等地仍有强降水,局地有大暴雨并伴有雷暴大风或冰雹等强对流天气。23日,华南地区的降雨将明显减弱,但华南南部沿海部分地区仍有大到暴雨。另外,在25日前后,贵州、江南、华南等地还将有一次较强降水过程。  马学款提示,未来几天,我国南方地区强降水过程多、局地雨强大,并可能伴有风雹天气,公众需及时关注当地气象部门发布的预报预警信息,在强降水时段减少外出,避免在山涧、河道等低洼地带逗留,注意防雨防雷电,防范山洪、滑坡、泥石流等次生灾害风险。相关部门要注意城市低洼地带及时排水,加固户外设施,防范强风对临时搭建物、高空作业装置和人员、航运等的安全威胁。  (中国小康网综合中国气象局官微)。

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