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绍伊古去职:俄罗斯权力中枢的洗牌_我的网站

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A |     WARSAW, Poland -- Three opposition parties that vowed to restore democratic standards in Poland together won over 54% of the votes in the nation's weekend parliamentary election, putting them in a position to take power, according to a complete ballot count reported Tuesday.The conservative Law and Justice party, which has governed the country for eight turbulent years, won slightly over 35% of the votes, making it the single party with the most votes. But the party and its leader Jarosław Kaczyński lost their majority in parliament and appeared to have no way to hold onto power.The official ballot announced by the National Electoral Commission aligns closely with an exit poll released after voting ended Sunday.Turnout was nearly 75%, a record that surpassed even the 63% turnout of 1989, a vote that triggered the collapse of the oppressive Soviet-backed communist system. Law and Justice had been moving the country down an illiberal path, taking control of courts in a manner that violated the country's constitution. The party politicized state institutions, including taxpayer-funded public media which it used as a crude propaganda tool to praise itself and vilify opponents.The result was a huge victory for Donald Tusk, the head of the largest opposition group, Civic Coalition. He appeared likely to return to his past role as Polish prime minister, a job he held from 2007-14. He also served as the European Council president, a top job in the EU, from 2014-19.Tusk's success is all the more remarkable given that state media went into overdrive to portray him as a stooge of Germany and Russia. That portrayal, which appeared baseless, also won him much sympathy.Tusk himself won more than half a million votes running for a seat in parliament. His party said it was the best result in the history of parliamentary elections in Poland.The result was a huge relief for Poles concerned about the country’s international isolation at a time of war across the border in Ukraine and the constant bickering with the European Union. Many feared it could cause the country's eventual exit from the 27-member bloc.The LGBTQ+ community also suffered a smear campaign in recent years, being portrayed as a threat to the nation by the conservative ruling party. Liberal critics were sometimes depicted as disloyal to the country. Over the years, massive protests led by women rocked the country as the party restricted the abortion law to prevent the termination of pregnancies with fetal abnormalities.Young people and women were among those who voted in droves to get rid of the Law and Justice party, which won in 2015 vowing to fight corruption and help even out economic inequalities. While its social spending did help many Polish pensioners and families, solidifying a solid base of support, the party has increasingly faced allegations of corruption.The National Electoral Commission said that Law and Justice won slightly over 35% of the votes, and the far-right Confederation party, a possible ally, about 7%.Three opposition groups won a collective of 53.7%, enough for a comfortable majority of 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, or Sejm; The Civic Coalition garnered 30.7% of the vote while the centrist Third Way got 14.4% and the New Left about 8.6%.The three ran on separate tickets so they are not formally part of the same coalition, but all promised to cooperate to restore the rule of law.Law and Justice will have 194 seats, far short of the majority it held for eight years. Confederation increased its presence from 11 in the outgoing parliament to 18 seats in parliament. It had hoped for more after a brief summertime surge in the polls.The opposition, which had a razor-thin majority in the outgoing Senate, has now obtained an overwhelming majority of 66 out of 100 seats in that upper chamber. The Senate is far less powerful than the Sejm, but still has some limited influence over the legislative process. Law and Justice will only have 34 seats.In another sharp blow to Law and Justice, a referendum held alongside the vote failed to reach the 50% needed to be valid. Many voters boycotted it to protest loaded questions on migration and other fraught issues which appeared aimed mostly at mobilizing the ruling party's supporters.Although the voting is over, it might still take weeks for a new government to be in place.President Andrzej Duda, an ally of Law and Justice, must call for the first session of the new parliament within 30 days of election day and appoint a prime minister to form a government.In the meantime, the current government will remain in a caretaker role.。    

在五万俄军如火如荼地进攻哈尔科夫之际,普京总统在他执掌俄罗斯的新任期开启之际,国内领导班子进行了一系列的调整,其中最为引人注目的,就是谢尔盖·绍伊古从国防部长的位置上调任俄罗斯联邦安全理事会秘书,接替搞情报出身的佩特鲁舍夫,而国防部长一职则由先前一直负责经济建设的副总理安德烈·别列乌索夫接任。
有人解读这一变动,是对绍伊古的明升暗降,将其从国防部长的位置上撤换,意为其需要对战争的进展以及牵扯出来的贪腐案负责任,给了他一个虚衔。也有一种说法,认为此举,使得绍伊古的地位进一步提升,因为他所接替的佩特鲁舍夫,一度被解读为俄罗斯第二、三号实权人物。
要想弄清楚这个问题,我们先来看一看俄罗斯联邦安全理事会(SCRF)的历史与地位。SCRF成立于1991年四月,当时正是苏联解体的前夜。彼时尚处于苏联加盟国的俄罗斯联邦的代表大会,一致通过成立这个理事会,同时也设立了俄罗斯联邦总统。在后来的“八一九”事件中,叶利钦和SCRF的官员一举粉碎了暴乱,掌控全局。

B | 可以说这个安全理事会成立之初,就是和俄罗斯总统一职,高度捆绑的。

在苏联解体之后,1993年,俄罗斯宪法规定,SCRF由俄罗斯的总统领导并进行任命成员,同时SCRF的地位,则依照俄罗斯法律来决定,具有一定的灵活性和变动性。

C | 在2010年,俄罗斯的《安全法》将SCRF的法律地位定义为“宪法咨询机构”,负责制定总统在俄罗斯国防和国家安全领域的决定。SCRF由其主席(俄罗斯总统)、SCRF秘书、其正式成员和由总统任命的成员组成。根据法律,SCRF秘书由总统任命,并直接向他报告。

值得一提的是,SCRF的主席,正是普京总统本人,而副主席,则是梅德韦杰夫。十多年,俄罗斯政坛的“梅普二人转”相信大家并不陌生。

D | 除此之外,外长拉夫罗夫、总理米舒斯京以及掌管情报与安全的部长,都是常任理事。

由此可见,SCRF由俄罗斯的一把手以及各大军政要员担任,是在政府与国家杜马之上的,事实层面的决策机构,军国大事,可以说都是由普京总统提出然后SCRF众人拍板议定。类似于汉代的内朝制度与明代的殿阁大学士(六部尚书兼任大学士,也是常态),是传达首脑指令,商议并进行决策的中枢机构。

E | 至于SCRF秘书长实权是大是小,取决于普京本人的意愿,绍伊古是否还会发挥重要作用,有待于进一步观察。过往来看,普京不会亏待对自己绝对忠诚的人。

F |

绍伊古的前任秘书长——尼古拉·帕特鲁舍夫,则是相当重量级的人物。他担任秘书长长达16年。在这之前,他是俄罗斯联邦安全局的局长,早在70年代从事情报工作的时候,就与普京相识并且关系紧密,帕特鲁舍夫是俄罗斯天字一号的情报头目,说是普京的左膀右臂,毫不为过。
在打击叶利钦时代的寡头和普京的反对者上,帕特鲁舍夫可谓一柄尖刀。早期的异见人士利特维年科与近期的纳尔瓦尼之死,被猜测都有帕特鲁舍夫的旨意。14年克里米亚危机与22年的乌克兰战争,帕特鲁舍夫在幕后纵横捭阖,通过情报工作为俄罗斯争取到了不少先机。还有一种传说,认为瓦格纳头目普里戈津之死,是帕特鲁舍夫一手操办。虽然是传说,但足以表明帕特鲁舍夫的巨大能量与影响力。如今,他的儿子也获取了一个掌管经济的副总理的职位,俄罗斯的权力核心圈,看上去愈发紧密。
那么绍伊古,接任这个位置之后,会不会像之前的帕特鲁舍夫一样,发挥着如此重要的作用,有着巨大的能量呢?首先,要知道自2022年以来,担任国防部长的绍伊古,说是让人大跌眼镜毫不为过。

G | 抛开所谓“1小时22分速通基辅”这种无脑神论,前瓦格纳头目普里戈津多次在公开场合怒喷绍伊古,指责其不仅在援军与弹药问题上拖延,贻误战机。前线将士流血,国防部长的家人却在后方享乐,同时揭发了绍伊古领导下的国防部一系列贪腐问题。

普里戈任以此为借口,在去年六月还发动了一场兵变,口号就是要“清君侧”,罢免绍伊古等人。

H | 在兵变平息之后,外界一度猜测普京总统会罢免绍伊古与总参谋长格拉西莫夫,不过后续来看,二人稳坐泰山。土木工程出身,一度管理应急救灾的绍伊古,也是从上世纪开始就跟随着普京,共事二十多年的铁杆亲信,岂是说倒就倒。

俗话说,打狗还得看主人,国防部的其他人,可就未必有“免死金牌”护身了。前不久,副部长帖木儿·伊万诺夫,被指控贪污10亿卢布(接近8000万人民币),据悉,伊万诺夫在俄军通信装备更新与采购的时候,狮子大开口吃回扣,原本高精尖的通信设备,被调换了不少。前线俄军在战场上使用次等通信设备,从而信号极其容易被锁定,无数年轻人,因此命丧顿巴斯前线。
贪污被查的,还不止伊万诺夫一人。

I | 绍伊古的部下,也是人人自危。绍伊古任期内的另外两个副部长察利科夫与克鲁科维奇也主动辞职,不知是否会调任他用,有俄罗斯的军事博主,分析这二人是做贼心虚,也有说法是新任的防长别列乌索夫希望清洗旧部,避免在后续的工作中受到掣肘。

别列乌索夫是经济部长出身,曾经还参与无人机等科研项目。和绍伊古一样,非行伍出身,缺乏军事指挥经验。

J | 不过这并不重要,俄罗斯所需要的国防部长,从来不是在战场上决胜千里的军神,而是要听普京总统的话,并且能够完成指派任务的文官。

瓦格纳兵变之后,军人执掌国防部的概率被进一步降低。

K | 面对绍伊古任内,留下的贪腐等一堆乱摊子,找一个搞经济专家去收拾,意图再明显不过。一方面,这个人没有军人背景,无法通过既往的战功在军中确立个人威望。另一方面,别列乌索夫要处理军中的贪腐和装备老旧等一系列问题,最为重要的是,要能够平衡乌克兰战争的消耗与国内经济的发展,这关系到避免重蹈覆辙俄罗斯那些历史上全面战争所带来的悲剧。

目前,乌克兰战争被控制在一个有限的范围之内,俄罗斯短期内必然是无法拿下基辅,实现所谓的去武装化。同时,有限的动员与进攻,能打出几场可圈可点的漂亮战役,前线损兵折将那也是必然的,但是对后方的影响,微乎其微。乌克兰能靠盟友们的军援保家卫国,这个过程会被蚕食一些领土,美国援助武器不能用来攻击俄罗斯本土这一限制,极大束缚了乌克兰的手脚,短期内,取得反攻重大进展也是天方夜谭,战场,还是这么僵持着下去。
也不排除,未来绍伊古会幕后影响国防部或者是情报机构,毕竟这个特殊的秘书长职位,可以干的事情太多了,当然也可以闲着。这场权力洗牌,就是兵部尚书调任内阁大学士,而这个大学士的位置,先前是由锦衣卫头子担任。

L | 从这也可以看出,同样是战时权力重组,俄罗斯比起晚期大明,还是更为高明。最少绝对忠诚的人,是不会被用来背黑锅,也不会“狡兔死,走狗烹”。

M | 换个岗位,继续发光发热,权力核心集团愈发紧密,确实棋高一招。

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Published on:09:58:22


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