> 新闻 > 国内新闻 > 正文

田径女神走红

CIA publicly acknowledges 1953 coup it backed in Iran was undemocratic_我的网站

爱在旅途

A |     

拜登政府近日宣布了对华新一轮增税措施,涉及金额超过100亿美元,主要针对七种产品,其中包括新能源车、锂电池、芯片等新兴生产力领域。部分国际经济学家将此举措视为美国对华经济战的2.0版本。在特朗普时代,特朗普发动的第一轮对华关税战持续升级,涉及3000亿美元的中国商品,最高加征关税幅度达到25%。而如今,拜登政府的关税举措更为激进,例如对中国电动车的关税税率甚至高达100%,这几乎达到了疯狂的地步。    DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- While revealing new details about one of the most famed CIA operations of all times — the spiriting out of six American diplomats who escaped the 1979 U.S. Embassy seizure in Iran — the intelligence agency for the first time has acknowledged something else as well.The CIA now officially describes the 1953 coup it backed in Iran that overthrew its prime minister and cemented the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as undemocratic.Other American officials have made similar remarks in the past, but the CIA's acknowledgment in a podcast about the agency's history comes as much of its official history of the coup remains classified 70 years after the putsch. That complicates the public's understanding of an event that still resonates, as tensions remain high between Tehran and Washington over the Islamic Republic's rapidly advancing nuclear program, its aiding of militia groups across the Mideast and as it cracks down on dissent. The “CIA’s leadership is committed to being as open with the public as possible," the agency said in a statement responding to questions from The Associated Press. "The agency’s podcast is part of that effort — and we knew that if we wanted to tell this incredible story, it was important to be transparent about the historical context surrounding these events, and CIA’s role in it.”In response to questions from the AP, Iran's mission to the United Nations described the 1953 coup as marking “the inception of relentless American meddling in Iran’s internal affairs” and dismissed the U.S. acknowledgments.“The U.S. admission never translated into compensatory action or a genuine commitment to refrain from future interference, nor did it change its subversive policy towards the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the mission said in a statement. The CIA's podcast, called “The Langley Files” as its headquarters is based in Langley, Virginia, focused two recent episodes on the story of the six American diplomats' escape. While hiding at the home of the Canadian ambassador to Iran, a two-man CIA team entered Tehran and helped them fly out of the country while pretending to be members of a crew scouting for a made-up science fiction film.The caper, retold in the 2012 Academy Award-winning film “Argo” directed by and starring Ben Affleck, offered a dramatized version of the operation, with Affleck playing the late CIA officer Antonio “Tony” Mendez. The podcast for the first time identified the second CIA officer who accompanied Mendez, naming him as agency linguist and exfiltration specialist Ed Johnson. He previously only had been known publicly by the pseudonym “Julio.”“Working with the six — these are rookies," Johnson recounts in an interview aired by the podcast. "They were people who were not trained to lie to authorities. They weren’t trained to be clandestine, elusive.” But in the podcast, another brief exchange focuses on the 1953 coup.In it, CIA spokesman and podcast host Walter Trosin cites the claims of agency historians that the majority of the CIA’s clandestine activities in its history “bolstered” popularly elected governments.“We should acknowledge, though, that this is, therefore, a really significant exception to that rule,” Trosin says of the 1953 coup.CIA historian Brent Geary, appearing on the podcast, agrees.“This is one of the exceptions to that," Geary says.Seven decades later, the 1953 coup remains as hotly debated as ever by Iran, its theocratic government, historians and others. Iran's hard-line state television spent hours discussing the coup that toppled Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh on its anniversary in June. In their telling, a straight line leads from the coup to the 1979 Islamic Revolution that ultimately toppled the fatally ill shah. It still fuels the anti-Americanism that colors decisions made by the theocracy, whether in arming Russia in its war on Ukraine or alleging without evidence that Washington fomented the recent nationwide mass protests targeting it. From the U.S. side, the CIA's hand in the coup quickly was revealed as a success of Cold War espionage, though historians in recent years have debated just how much influence the agency's actions had. It also led the CIA into a series of further coups in other countries, including Guatemala, where American clandestine action in 1954 installed a military dictator and sparked a 40-year civil war that likely killed some 245,000 people.That's led to an American political reappraisal of the 1953 CIA action in Iran. Then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright acknowledged the U.S.' "significant role" in the coup in 2000. President Barack Obama, speaking in Cairo in 2009, described the CIA's work as leading to the “overthrow of a democratically elected Iranian government.” But largely absent from the discussion was the CIA itself. After years of conflicting versions of the coup both in public and classified papers, a member of the CIA's own in-house team of historians wrote a reappraisal of the operation in a 1998 paper titled “Zendebad, Shah!” in Farsi — or “Long Live the Shah!”But despite a series of American historical documents being made public, including a major tranche of State Department papers in 2017, large portions of that CIA reappraisal remain heavily redacted despite attempts to legally pry them loose by the George Washington University-based National Security Archive. That's even after pledges by former agency directors Robert Gates and James Woolsey Jr. in the 1990s to release documents from that coup and others engineered by the agency. Further complicating any historical reckoning is the CIA's own admission that many files related to the 1953 coup likely had been destroyed in the 1960s.“It’s wrong to suggest that the coup operation itself has been fully declassified. Far from it," said Malcolm Byrne of the National Security Archive. "Important parts of the record are still being withheld, which only contributes to public confusion and encourages myth-making about the U.S. role long after the fact.”。
经过过去七年的历练,中国方面早已对底线思维进行了深入预估。若不幸遭遇美国毫无理性的打击,我们应采取何种应对措施成为关键议题。内部循环足以支撑我们度过相当长的一段时期。此外,值得注意的是,美国在某些领域如新三样的市场份额并不显著,反而在欧洲以及我们正在开拓的一带一路和金砖国家集团等市场中表现更为强劲。因此,若我们仅从当前中美贸易战2.0的角度去观察,可能会忽略更为重要的方面。实际上,当前最重要的是货币战与金融战,而贸易战更像是其掩护下的烟雾。面对高额关税,中国大陆已明确表态,要求美国及时停止此类行为,而不仅仅是表达反对或采取其他措施。
在一周内,一项高效的反制措施或许会产生。

B | 在此过程中,还需准备应对“货币战争”和“金融战争”。当前,事件在日本已展开,日元汇率暴跌,日本陷入困境。在这种背景下,“中、日、韩”三国需重新思考应对策略。美国方面,只是在虚张声势,加征关税并无新意。最终,这种压迫手段反而促使中国在某些领域的新兴产业获得发展,逐步自力更生,开拓其他市场。因此,中美贸易摩擦的重要性逐渐降低。如同美元在国际金融收支、结算及储备货币占比方面,已呈现长期下滑趋势。问题的关键在于,这不是一朝一夕就能看到改变的,但长期趋势明显,可以聚焦于2035年和2049年的持久战。

实际上,美国的做法导致其最大的贸易伙伴中国与之疏离,进而疏离美国市场,此举无疑使美国自身成为受害者。中国有能力寻找其他市场,如“一带一路”倡议所涵盖的地区,这些市场未来的发展潜力远超过现有范围。

C | 此外,若美国选择封杀中国的电动车产业,其未来的新能源汽车行业将面临巨大挑战。

D | 预计在2049年,美国可能仍在使用燃油车,电动车产业发展受到严重阻碍,这无疑对美国是一个巨大的打击。当前,电动车所使用的锂电池在原料及系统方面,中国拥有大量掌控权,美国无法完全摆脱对中国的依赖。因此,美国此次的举措不仅未能有效打击中国,反而可能对自身造成更大的损害,可谓是杀敌一千自损三千,自食其果。

E | 最后,此举还将对全球经济格局产生深远影响,特别是在“金融战”方面,可能引发一系列连锁反应和不确定性。

美国当前处境颇显困境,可用的策略已寥寥无几。在诸多可选之策中,最严峻的一项便是触发地区军事冲突。这种冲突可能出现在亚洲周边,如朝鲜半岛,或通过菲律宾引发局部动荡,甚至最终导致台海局势紧张。

F | 然而,这一设想尚存变数,美国最后的战略抉择仍难以预测。考虑到今年为大选年,预计美国决策者将避免引发重大意外。然而,当前俄乌冲突及中东战场仍令美国疲于应对。

在亚洲地区,目前并未面临显著的即时危机。然而,截至今年11月,特朗普与拜登之间的总统大选对决将揭晓结果。无论是拜登成功连任,还是特朗普重返白宫,都将对美国乃至全球政治格局产生深远影响。

G | 尤其值得关注的是,若特朗普再次执政,中美贸易关系是否将陷入新一轮的紧张态势。

H | 在大选期间,特朗普曾表示若再当选,将对中国国所有商品加征60%的关税。至于此言论是仅为竞选口号,还是真实意图,仍有待观察。

美国是一个颇为独特的国家,在选举过程中,许多选民首先关注的是投票环节。据统计,大约60%的选民参与投票,而剩余的选民则呈现出大致50%、50%的分布,无论52%、48%或其他比例,两党之间的对抗始终存在,权力争夺永无止境。如此状况,每七年更新一次,这被视为美国制度的致命缺陷。若此问题无法解决,对美国的前景恐不宜过于乐观。从现在到今年底,再到10月份,美国政治的发展态势值得我们高度关注。这不仅关系到美国本身,也影响到中国、香港乃至全球的经济繁荣。

Current article:http://www.senchuoshaozaodidia.shop/list_w36s/w3z3sv.doc

Published on:08:47:02